My recent paper Recession or No Recession? laid out the case that a recession is much more likely than financial markets are currently assuming. For an independent second opinion I turned again to Lord Macpherson, former Permanent Secretary at the Treasury, now a visiting professor at King’s College, London and a cross-bench peer in the House of Lords. Nick Macpherson has both a deep knowledge of economics and many years of experience in practical policymaking, having been the head of the Treasury before, through and after the global financial crisis. Here is a link to the article.
Sandy Nairn 