Analysis: Are we there yet?

My view is that the bear market in equities is through the first phase of its decline but the most recent rally is not sustainable and there will be at least two more phases before it is over. Persistently poorer economic news is likely to emerge in the second half of this year, leading to a marked deterioration in investor sentiment. The emergence of this kind of gloomy sentiment and commentary will be a classic signal that the trough of the bear market may finally be imminent. As we work our way through what will be a difficult market environment, policy will in due course be loosened, but a time lag will again come into play. Here is the link to the article.

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